What is in the cards for the Russian oil indstry?
A ten-years lookahead on the prospects of the wounded giant
Since launching this blog, I’ve written here mostly on current affairs or shorter-term issues of the global and Russian energy industry.
Several months ago I was asked to think a few years ahead, through the current turmoil, and ponder about the future of the Russian oil industry in the next decade.
Clearly, it’s facing many challenges. It is tempting to say that everything is different now, compared to how things were 2 years ago. A school of thought predicts an imminent collapse, similar to what happened in Iran and Venezuela. There are also optimist voices, mostly inside Russia, saying that after so many major crises starting from the 1980s (5 at least), Russians have become world champions in dealing with adversity, and every time the challenges only made the Russian oil industry stronger.
I think there are some grains of truth in both views, but the real picture is complex, fascinating, and different from each of these simplistic descriptions. In my opinion, Russia and its oil industry are still underestimating the true weight of the sanctions which will be getting heavier and tighter, and outside observers underestimate the resilience, competence, and sheer mass of the Russian oil industry.
For the details I invite you to my latest publication, it’s a ten-pager, so allow yourself some time if you are going to read it.
https://www.innovationreform.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/EIRP-Russias-Oil-Sector.pdf