The Great Energy War of the 2022 - what's next?
Six months ago I have started this Substack with a multi-part story, looking at the energy war that was just about to begin. Most of the projections have come true, but I do not see it as a cause to celebrate, I would much prefer them to turn out false.
So far, Europe has managed to cope with the Russian energy blockade, albeit at a great cost. The weather this Fall was also extremely cooperative, which allowed filling the gas storage to the brim (still at a rather high cost). It seems that Mr. Putin is losing his last allies, including General Frost, who came to Russia’s rescue in 1941 and 1812, this may change over the coming winter, so it is a bit early to celebrate. It is also clear that this crisis is not here for a few months, and that the next couple of years may be even more difficult and will have strong ramifications for the state of the European economy and quite likely politics and society.
Few weeks ago Re:Russia expert and discussion platform asked me to revisit the subject, and I gladly obliged, so please find the rest of my analysis here: https://re-russia.net/en/expertise/028/ .
I would however be glad to discuss it on Substack or in correspondence, after all, these writings are intended as a start of a conversation, and not as a sermon.
https://open.substack.com/pub/finiche/p/portfolio-insights?utm_source=direct&r=1s05vd&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Thank you for this article. Indeed, it may take time to adjust to the major war-induced energy shocks. On Iran, nobody would see it as efficient or very dynamic. however, I would offer an article published by Brookings. In ppp terms gdp per capita was not as bad as it was commonly believed. see, for example, figure 2. Also, in 2011, major mistakes in macroeconomic policy made the situation worse than it could have been https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/03/14/irans-economy-40-years-after-the-islamic-revolution/amp/