Carnegie opinions
I am writing for Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on energy issues.
July 6
Back to the 1970s? EU-Russia Energy War Heats Up
Europe, and probably the global economy as a whole, is already headed for a recession. Economic slowdown usually leads to a reduction in energy demand, which should help, but this time the potential shortfall is too big, and energy shortage–induced stoppages will probably deepen the recession and accelerate inflation, similar to the 1970s.
July 5
How Russia Could Thwart an Oil Price Cap
The Kremlin may well be inclined to call the West’s bluff and prohibit crude exports at a price lower than an established threshold, thereby reducing the global supply and driving up prices. Then Moscow could simply wait for buyers’ cartel defectors to come knocking at its door.
June 14
A Big Bang? Anticipating the Impact of Europe’s Sanctions on Russian Energy
The six-month grace period will give the world some time to prepare, but with production capacity already tight, as reflected by current oil prices, there is little surplus production that could be stored for the future.
May 24
Shots Fired: Is an EU-Russia Energy War Inevitable?
On May 11, the Russian government took a major step in the energy sanctions war. It placed EuRoPol Gaz and Gazprom Germania and its affiliates under sanctions, prohibiting Russian companies from having any dealings with these entities. Why would the Russian government sanction its own companies?